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Search: Posts Made By: brophymj
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 05-30-2017, 11:39 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,129
Posted By brophymj
Credibility - PLEASE HELP!

I'm using the Buhlmann Straub credibility model for a fleet portfolio I'm working on and I'm getting what I think is a very high weight even given the size of the fleet i.e. 51% applied to experience...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-12-2017, 06:06 AM
Replies: 0
Views: 899
Posted By brophymj
Buhlmann straub credibility model in fleet

I've tried to create a Buhlmann Straub credibility model for our company's fleet rating model. We've had some reasonable challenges on the weight being given to fleets with low vehicle numbers. For...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-19-2015, 08:57 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 511
Posted By brophymj
Credibility weighting new business policy

For a new business fleet policy with no prior claims experience but with a large fleet of vehicles, I presume you cannot use any credibility weighting and that the premium would be determined based...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-18-2015, 06:56 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 752
Posted By brophymj
Experience Price Premium Query

I have a query regarding inflation allowance when determining the experience premium.

Suppose a large fleet policy is renewing on 1 November 2015 and..

* cover is on a annual basis

* the...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-15-2015, 05:01 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 2,128
Posted By brophymj
Standard for Full Credibility

Hi

My company wants to review and possibly update the approach we use to assign weights between the tariff premium (premium based on GLM model etc.) and the experience premium (premium based on...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 09-21-2015, 10:34 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 817
Posted By brophymj
Driverless Cars - Implications for Capital and Reserving

It is pretty clear what the likely consequences would be for Ratemaking but what would be the main implications for reserving and capital.

reserving:
drop in damage claims relative to injury...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 08-19-2015, 04:01 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,177
Posted By brophymj
Your comments were very helpful. Thanks for...

Your comments were very helpful. Thanks for spending the time to help with my queries.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 08-17-2015, 11:20 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,177
Posted By brophymj
Actuarial Pricing Questions

I'm working on a pricing model for motor and I have a couple of general questions on the approach to follow and what's best practice.

What would be the minimum number of Large Claims needed in...
Forum: General Actuarial 08-14-2015, 10:08 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 2,194
Posted By brophymj
Most difficult actuarial paper published

What are the most mathematically complex actuarial publications in the last 15 years that have served to better the profession.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-22-2015, 03:08 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 732
Posted By brophymj
Another very useful comment from Bassfreq... If...

Another very useful comment from Bassfreq... If you don't want to give advice save yourself the time of writing unhelpful comments.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-22-2015, 10:40 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 657
Posted By brophymj
Burning cost premium in motor

Is the premium you get when you combined the frequency and severity models for each of the claim types?
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-22-2015, 10:39 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 666
Posted By brophymj
GLIM practical query

In working on a technical analysis (GLIM) at the moment and I have a couple of questions...

I've created frequency/severity models for TPI/TPD etc. using all potential rating factors. I will be...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-22-2015, 10:03 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 732
Posted By brophymj
Yes I was looking for approval but also advice on...

Yes I was looking for approval but also advice on any other steps that are important that I have left out. I have lots of experience modeling but not as much bringing rates to market
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-22-2015, 09:16 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 732
Posted By brophymj
Fleet Technical Analysis

I'm planning out the various steps in a commercial motor fleet technical analysis I am working on and I wanted to check if I have left anything out. The steps below are my view (based on my...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-20-2015, 06:52 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 1,376
Posted By brophymj
Statistical significance with very little data

Hi

I have a question regarding interpreting parameter estimates in a GLIM. I'm looking at a frequency model at the moment and one of the interactions I'm investigating is significant in the model,...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-17-2015, 10:19 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 585
Posted By brophymj
Interactions in your model

Hi

I'm working on a fleet glm and I'm currently testing interactions. I have a couple of queries regarding this topic...

1. In some cases I am getting a significant interaction between two...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-01-2015, 04:05 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 2,476
Posted By brophymj
thank you MoralHazard but if I'm just interested...

thank you MoralHazard but if I'm just interested in the 'value added' by each factor in the model is my approach reasonable or is it incorrect. All of the parameter estimates in the model are...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 03-31-2015, 12:54 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 2,476
Posted By brophymj
How to determine the most significant factor in a model

I have a model with 18 factors fitted. Is there a way to determine which factors are the best in the model. If you remove one and calculate the increase in the deviance and do this separately for...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 03-13-2015, 10:04 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 705
Posted By brophymj
Just to add to this, it would seem that by...

Just to add to this, it would seem that by fitting vehicle age it has absorbed all the deviance that could b3e explained by the other factors which seems very strange as I wouldn't expect vehicle...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 03-13-2015, 07:56 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 705
Posted By brophymj
TPI frequency model

Hi

I'm looking at a TPI frequency model for fleet and I wanted to check something.

Once of the factors I have is vehicle value which is very significant in the model - it brings the deviance...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 02-19-2015, 12:31 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,209
Posted By brophymj
The point I was making was that small sample...

The point I was making was that small sample sizes are unlikely to produce good model results.
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 02-18-2015, 01:09 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 613
Posted By brophymj
fleet modelling

Does it make sense to have 'number of young drivers', 'number of provisional licenses' and other variables like this in a fleet glm? Although the number of licenses/drivers is important it doesn't...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 02-15-2015, 03:14 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 1,209
Posted By brophymj
Fleet GLIM queries

I'm about to start a commercial fleet glim and I wanted to pick the brains of some of the experts on this forum.

I've worked on retail motor GLIMs before with lots of data and this is my first...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 12-16-2014, 06:59 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 1,089
Posted By brophymj
Poisson Regression - no closed-form solution

I'm not debating the above I am just trying to understand the reasons for it. An explanation by way of an example would be helpful.

My understanding is that a closed form solution does not exist...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 11-18-2014, 12:28 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,298
Posted By brophymj
Thanks very much, really appreciate it

Thanks very much, really appreciate it
Showing results 1 to 25 of 64

 

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