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Search: Posts Made By: Colymbosathon ecplecticos
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing Yesterday, 09:22 AM
Replies: 87
Views: 7,450
So, you really are only "earning" 6/8 or so of...

So, you really are only "earning" 6/8 or so of the HSBC bonus and less than half of the North Shore bonus in 2020. :)
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-29-2020, 09:12 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 430
Thumbs down The bid/ask spread would eat you alive over time,...

The bid/ask spread would eat you alive over time, but even if you could expect to trade on average at the mid, what are you gaining? Companies typically time announcements to occur while the market...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 05-29-2020, 12:10 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 430
Occasionally trading in a stock will be halted...

Occasionally trading in a stock will be halted during the day in anticipation of company news. The news is released and trading resumes. I'll make up an example:

Bid/Ask before halt: 10.0/10.1
...
Forum: Exam PA: Predictive Analytics 05-16-2020, 04:04 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 347
Those look like useful comments. Useless...

Those look like useful comments.

Useless comments are like the following:

Running_total += Next_term # add Next_term to Running_total
Forum: Chat with the Candidates & Exam Committee 04-25-2020, 07:22 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 12,674
APC is the ethics unit. Since you can't imagine...

APC is the ethics unit. Since you can't imagine its necessity, you now have evidence of its necessity.
Forum: Probability 04-24-2020, 02:01 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 401
Draw the axes, the circle, and the line. ...

Draw the axes, the circle, and the line.

These cut the region into a total of five pieces; presumably the region that you want is the lens shaped region. This is one quarter of the full circle...
Forum: Property - Casualty / General Insurance 04-18-2020, 12:06 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 433
One idea that comes to mind is to use an...

One idea that comes to mind is to use an iterative approach, somewhat akin to the old Bailey minimum bias method and the EM algorithm.

Select an initial value for the NCD. Replace the base...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-12-2020, 10:49 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 944
That happens anytime the derivative of your...

That happens anytime the derivative of your function is not equal to one at the point in question.
Forum: General Actuarial 04-11-2020, 01:45 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 3,041
It is really in the company's best interests to...

It is really in the company's best interests to do something like this.

Suppose that a company typically had premium of 1000, expenses of 200, and incurred losses of 750 --- a 75% loss ratio and...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 04-09-2020, 10:13 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Does the news contain any information that wasn't...

Does the news contain any information that wasn't available yesterday? If it is good news, expect the market to go up and conversely.

New unemployment filings = 6.2M? Is that bad news? Not if...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 10:14 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
There are cash-settled index options, but you...

There are cash-settled index options, but you specified SPY, an ETF.

First rule of investing: if you don't understand the trade, don't do it.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 07:33 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
You're missing the point. If your put expired...

You're missing the point. If your put expired in-the-money and your broker exercises it for you, you end up with a short position in the underlying. There is no maximum possible loss on a short...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 07:05 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Let's say that you buy a 10-strike put on XYZ...

Let's say that you buy a 10-strike put on XYZ that expires tomorrow; XYZ is trading at 11 right now. At the close tomorrow, XYZ is trading at 9.5 … your options is $0.50 in the money, so your broker...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 02:01 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Are you long the underlying? If not, think about...

Are you long the underlying? If not, think about what exercise would mean …

It worries me to see people trading derivatives that they don't understand.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-27-2020, 11:53 AM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Picking the strikes on calendar spreads and...

Picking the strikes on calendar spreads and diagonal spreads like this is tricky because the term structure of volatility is very difficult to model --- in fact, this problem is one of the best...
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 03-25-2020, 09:43 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 237
Suppose that you were starting a new line of...

Suppose that you were starting a new line of business, so EP = 0.

You write $1000 of premium and pay a commission of $150. No other expenses.

You should be able to see that your permissible...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-24-2020, 07:49 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
I'm old enough to remember this: On October...

I'm old enough to remember this:

On October 2, 1987, the first of two Doji appeared. The Open and the Close of that Doji in the Dow Jones Industrials Index on that day were 2639.20 and 2641.00,...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-24-2020, 04:00 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
This is a really interesting idea. The options...

This is a really interesting idea. The options are trading at 0.12; the 52-week high in F is 10.56, so your bet is that F get back to its 52-week high, and if it does you'll make a 350% profit.
Forum: Exam 5 - Ratemaking/Reserving 03-15-2020, 06:11 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 381
The 100 claims with the $100k limit total $8...

The 100 claims with the $100k limit total $8 Million. You don't know how much they would have totaled with a $250k limit, so they can only be used to estimate the losses limited to $100k, not $250k.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-13-2020, 11:36 AM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
You are simply maintaining your target asset...

You are simply maintaining your target asset allocation by doing this --- this is not market timing. I happen to have rebalanced at yesterday's close also.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-13-2020, 08:41 AM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Well, the futures are limit up (+5%) (S&P +126),...

Well, the futures are limit up (+5%) (S&P +126), so I can't tell you much except that +1,100 (5%) or more on the Dow is closer than +200 at the open.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-12-2020, 03:20 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Not if you bought the high yield bonds of...

Not if you bought the high yield bonds of frackers that now can't pay you back.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-12-2020, 01:18 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Well, suppose that you bought this a year ago and...

Well, suppose that you bought this a year ago and held it until today. Let's say the market was at 1000 when you bought it and that it was at 1100 today.

Suppose that you had put in $100 a year...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-12-2020, 12:38 PM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
Sure. Do you know how they work? Do you know...

Sure. Do you know how they work? Do you know what the 2x means? When are you planning to exit the trade? Do you understand why you need to know that before entering it?

If the answer to any...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing 03-09-2020, 11:24 AM
Replies: 2,858
Views: 330,194
You seem to not understand the concept of market...

You seem to not understand the concept of market equilibrium.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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