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  #41  
Old 02-19-2019, 02:45 PM
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pulling a robinson cano. forfeiting any and all glory for that loot, no judgments here.
Not necessarily. The Padres were recently listed as having the best farm system in MLB. In a few years they may be a contender, and Machado can be a big part of that (unless his attitude gets in the way).
I wouldn't be surprised if he gets caught doping at some point. His bad attitude and me-first thinking will end up leading him there when his numbers start to drop.
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:59 PM
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pulling a robinson cano. forfeiting any and all glory for that loot, no judgments here.
Why? SD has the best (or one of the best) farm systems in the game right now. They could be the next Houston Astros in a year or three if things break right.

The Giants are a dumpster fire with their boatload of bad contracts and crappy farm system. It should take them 3-5 years to rebuild it.
The D-backs just started tear down and rebuild mode.
Rockies will always have issues with pitching 82 games in that park - it takes a toll on the staff.
The Dodgers window could be closing, though they have the resources to outspend a full blown rebuild and do have some young talent in place.

Seems like SD could have a nice window opening up in 2020 or 2021 when Machado will be in prime for several years.
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  #43  
Old 02-19-2019, 03:52 PM
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Good news for Machado: Per ESPN, PetCo was the best park for walks. And we all know how he likes to walk. Literally, walk.
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Old 02-19-2019, 05:17 PM
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On ESPN, someone wrote that this means Harper gets 10 years, close to $350m.
I just don't see it. There hasn't been a huge demand for him at the high price he's demanding, and just because Machado got his deal doesn't mean Harper gets his.
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Old 02-19-2019, 05:37 PM
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On ESPN, someone wrote that this means Harper gets 10 years, close to $350m.
I just don't see it. There hasn't been a huge demand for him at the high price he's demanding, and just because Machado got his deal doesn't mean Harper gets his.
Harper has been better than Macahdo. You'd think he'd wind up with as many years and more money. Not sure if it will reach $35M/per but I could see him landing 10/$320. Only takes one team offering him stupid money for him to accept.
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:45 PM
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Harper has been better than Macahdo. You'd think he'd wind up with as many years and more money. Not sure if it will reach $35M/per but I could see him landing 10/$320. Only takes one team offering him stupid money for him to accept.
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:47 PM
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Not Phillies or Yankees - I'm happy
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  #48  
Old 02-19-2019, 09:50 PM
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Show your work.
Offensively it really isnít close.
Machado has to rely on the black box of D-war to get close to Harper.
Both are very good players, Harper is better. Though Machado would have fit several teams needs better that Harper.
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  #49  
Old 02-20-2019, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
Offensively it really isnít close.
Machado has to rely on the black box of D-war to get close to Harper.
Both are very good players, Harper is better. Though Machado would have fit several teams needs better that Harper.
The dWAR model might be a black box, but I wouldnít throw it away entirely. Defense is difficult and important, and playing infield like Manny means handling a lot more difficult plays than an outfielder like Bryce.

Offensively, Bryce has accumulated 27.4 oWAR over 927 games in 7 seasons. Manny has accumulated 25.7 oWAR over 926 games in 7 seasons. Bryce is better, but just barely (I didnít realize theyíd be so close in games played before looking at bbref). Defensively, Bryceís dWAR over the period is -3.0, while Mannyís is +11.3, which is a pretty huge difference. A replacement level call up from AAA would be better at defense than Bryce. Bryce has been more inconsistent too. His 10.0 WAR MVP season in 2015 shows incredible potential, but he was only worth 1.1, 1.5, and 1.3 WAR in each of 2014, 2016, and 2018, so he feels like a bigger gamble. Meanwhile, Manny hasnít had a season lower than 3.4 WAR aside from his 2012 rookie season with 1.6 WAR in 51 games and an injury-plagued 2014 with 2.3 WAR in 82 games. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Bryce is the better player and will receive a larger contract. I definitely think heíll get more than $300M now that Manny has signed with the Padres, but Iím not sure heís actually the better player. I think Iíd rather have Manny than Bryce, to be honest.
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  #50  
Old 02-20-2019, 12:38 PM
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Agree with nonactuarialactuary.

Neither Bryce or Manny are worth 10/$300 IMO. Trout is the only consistent superstar out there that is FA (or near FA) aged. If Machado nets $300M, then Trout needs to $750M given his average production is 250% better than both Trout and Machado over the last 7 years...which is absurd.

Last 7 Years: Total oWAR, Mean oWAR, Variance oWAR
Trout: 62.8, 8.97, 0.73
Machado: 24.6, 3.51, 2.28
Harper: 27.5, 3.93, 5.58

Harper vs Machado: Machado is more consistent, but Harper has a "higher ceiling". Machado's defensive value is probably enough to "even" their total WAR out a bit.
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