John McCain Survival Probabilities

[campbell]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html

“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas.

The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.

Jack Luff, an actuary with the Society of Actuaries, also notes that the NAIC statistics are slightly weighted toward a higher probability of death.

“The [Commissioners Standard Ordinary] table is directed at life insurance and does have a margin in it with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes,” said Luff.

Jim Daniel posts at the AO (albeit in the exam sections). Still, a little jarring to see some familiar names.

[glassjaws]

Originally Posted by campbell

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html



Jim Daniel posts at the AO (albeit in the exam sections). Still, a little jarring to see some familiar names.

Isn't that true that the CSO has margins atop the VBT table? Or am I remembering that wrong?

[Actuary321]

Originally Posted by glassjaws

Isn't that true that the CSO has margins atop the VBT table? Or am I remembering that wrong?

Keep making comments like that and this thread will need to be moved to LIFE.

But the answer is yes. And not only do they have margins, but they are based on insured lives rather than the general population.

The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.

But based on his health experience and the seeming toll the presidency takes on the person, it could be considerable lower than the population at large as well.

[campbell]

All of these points are made in the article, by the way. I did my own blog post on this:
http://meep.livejournal.com/1749682.html

Much more inelegant treatment, but hey - there's a spreadsheet!

[Double High C]

Originally Posted by Actuary321

Keep making comments like that and this thread will need to be moved to LIFE.

But the answer is yes. And not only do they have margins, but they are based on insured lives rather than the general population.

But based on his health experience and the seeming toll the presidency takes on the person, it could be considerable lower than the population at large as well.

John McCain's mother is about 95, and from seeing her on TV at the RNC last night, she looks exceptionally good for someone that age.

[Actuary321]

Originally Posted by Double High C

John McCain's mother is about 95, and from seeing her on TV at the RNC last night, she looks exceptionally good for someone that age.

Is age at death for men more correlated with age at death for their mother or their father? Real question.

Based on the first few posts, I really don't believe this thread belongs in political.

[campbell]

Sorry, I thought the discussion might go in that direction. Thread moved.

[Patrick Bauer]

Looking back over America's history I think the chance of survival of an old white guy as major leader for four years is higher than the chance of survival of a black man as major leader for four years.

[Listeria]

Mary Pat, move it back! Incorporating a good understanding of probability and statistics into your thinking belongs everywhere and anytime you are processing your perceptions of the world you inhabit.

[campbell]

As I said in my blog post, an assassin is a more common cause of death in office than natural death.