John McCain Survival Probabilities

[campbell]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html

“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas.

The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.

Jack Luff, an actuary with the Society of Actuaries, also notes that the NAIC statistics are slightly weighted toward a higher probability of death.

“The [Commissioners Standard Ordinary] table is directed at life insurance and does have a margin in it with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes,” said Luff.

Jim Daniel posts at the AO (albeit in the exam sections). Still, a little jarring to see some familiar names.