John McCain Survival Probabilities

[campbell]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html

“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas.

The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.

Jack Luff, an actuary with the Society of Actuaries, also notes that the NAIC statistics are slightly weighted toward a higher probability of death.

“The [Commissioners Standard Ordinary] table is directed at life insurance and does have a margin in it with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes,” said Luff.

Jim Daniel posts at the AO (albeit in the exam sections). Still, a little jarring to see some familiar names.

[glassjaws]

Originally Posted by campbell

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html



Jim Daniel posts at the AO (albeit in the exam sections). Still, a little jarring to see some familiar names.

Isn't that true that the CSO has margins atop the VBT table? Or am I remembering that wrong?

[Actuary321]

Originally Posted by glassjaws

Isn't that true that the CSO has margins atop the VBT table? Or am I remembering that wrong?

Keep making comments like that and this thread will need to be moved to LIFE.

But the answer is yes. And not only do they have margins, but they are based on insured lives rather than the general population.

The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.

But based on his health experience and the seeming toll the presidency takes on the person, it could be considerable lower than the population at large as well.

[Double High C]

Originally Posted by Actuary321

Keep making comments like that and this thread will need to be moved to LIFE.

But the answer is yes. And not only do they have margins, but they are based on insured lives rather than the general population.

But based on his health experience and the seeming toll the presidency takes on the person, it could be considerable lower than the population at large as well.

John McCain's mother is about 95, and from seeing her on TV at the RNC last night, she looks exceptionally good for someone that age.

[Actuary321]

Originally Posted by Double High C

John McCain's mother is about 95, and from seeing her on TV at the RNC last night, she looks exceptionally good for someone that age.

Is age at death for men more correlated with age at death for their mother or their father? Real question.

Based on the first few posts, I really don't believe this thread belongs in political.

[Loner]

Originally Posted by Double High C

John McCain's mother is about 95, and from seeing her on TV at the RNC last night, she looks exceptionally good for someone that age.

Yes, but she didn't spend five years at the Hanoi Hilton, incurring permanent injuries, nor did she spend time in the Oval Office aging rapidly, which her son intends to do.
Actually I think she looks better than her son from what I've seen.

Plus his dad kicked the bucket at 70. His grandfather was 61.

[Double High C]

Originally Posted by Loner

Yes, but she didn't spend five years at the Hanoi Hilton, incurring permanent injuries, nor did she spend time in the Oval Office aging rapidly, which her son intends to do.
Actually I think she looks better than her son from what I've seen.

Plus his dad kicked the bucket at 70. His grandfather was 61.

Several ex-Presidents lived into their 90s, or are poised to do so. In fact, starting with Nixon, no ex-President has died young. (Clinton came close.)

And perhaps his life in the Senate was less stressful than the (longer?) military careers of his father and grandfather.

And each generation is trending upward.

[twig93]

Originally Posted by Double High C

John McCain's mother is about 95, and from seeing her on TV at the RNC last night, she looks exceptionally good for someone that age.

I was going to say this too - except that I thought she was 96. She does look pretty darned good for a 96 year-old. She looks more like 76 than 96.

[wat?]

Originally Posted by Actuary321

But based on his health experience and the seeming toll the presidency takes on the person, it could be considerable lower than the population at large as well.

I was going to say, my first reaction to that one sentence as a conclusion to the sentences that preceded it was, "Hey, non sequitur."

[campbell]

All of these points are made in the article, by the way. I did my own blog post on this:
http://meep.livejournal.com/1749682.html

Much more inelegant treatment, but hey - there's a spreadsheet!