Gambler actuary talks football

[DW Simpson]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/st...517912070.html

The professional bettor Fezzik said while just about anything can happen in a short sample of 51 selections, it's an impossible dream to hit 60 percent over the long term (say, several hundred picks) in today's highly competitive sports betting environment. Oddsmakers are just too sophisticated.

Fezzik, a former actuary, said an average bettor, one who can be expected to hit 50 percent against the spread long-term, would be a 12-1 underdog to hit 60 percent in a sample of 51 picks over 17 weeks.

[hotkarl]

making my 99-77 in the Yahoo RO gone wild pool pretty impressive. (7 picks away from 60%)

[whisper]

No, not really. Unless you do it next year, and the year after that, etc.

[hotkarl]

Actually it does...being a 12-1 underdog to hit at least 31 out of 51 games is just the simple math for a binomial distribution with p=.5 and RANDOM picks. This implies that i would be a 24-1 underdog to hit 99/176. his "impossible dream" is 388-1 underdog to randomly hit 106/176, and about 34,000-1 underdog to hit 60% over 500 games.

I think his point draws more relevance this way:
No way could oddsmakers screw up every game over on a given week.
(Depending on your definition of screw up. Some say oddsmakers try to get money 50/50. I think they actually move lines to get 55/45 towards the whichever way they are leaning. )

Here's the beauty: They can screw up 2 or 3. If you believe the 50/50 line, then you can make money off of other people being dumb. If you think they shift lines to maximize profits, its a bit tougher.

This week I'll take BUF-3.5, DET-6, and MIN-7 in that order of confidence.

If I look all season at the 3 games I was most confident in (I know because i play in a pool that makes you select confidence), my % goes from 56 to 72 (26-10). Part of that could be due to to small sample size, part of it to whatever they use to set the lines may have changed. Buffalo is not the team that started 0-5. The Jets aren't the team that started 5-0, etc.

[DW Simpson]

http://www.casinocitytimes.com/news/...ntentID=140664

...Fezzik, meanwhile, was making a good living in the corporate world before he took up gambling full time. After graduating from Northwestern University, he worked as an actuary and as a vice president for a big insurance company in California. A couple of years ago, he gave up the insurance game for sports betting -- where total liability means a losing bet on the over/under, and a rider is a basketball team favored against Siena. "I had been flying into Nevada for every football weekend, and I was making the same amount of money gambling as I was in corporate America -- although with violent fluctuations in my bankroll," said Fezzik, 40. Like many high-level gamblers, Fezzik -- a one-word name, like Nico -- treasures anonymity. Hence the pseudonym and his use of disguises during public appearances. (At last year's seminar, he sported sunglasses and a frizzy Afro wig.) The low profile allows him to make large wagers without drawing unwanted scrutiny, Fezzik said. And his scheme works -- usually. Fezzik said one Las Vegas sports book manager once barred him from the book for a year, telling him, "It's not my job to buy you a new car every year."

[3rookie]

Originally Posted by hotkarl

making my 99-77 in the Yahoo RO gone wild pool pretty impressive. (7 picks away from 60%)

I agree this is pretty good. But a 7 game swing is a lot. How many lines were off the board (creating a line of zero)? I would suggest throwing those out (right or wrong). And I'll disregard possible gain created by the lines closing Thursday, but being able to pick on the weekend when the actual lines have changed.

I'm 79-97 in a different Yahoo group (same rules). I did get 61% correct for the season 2 years ago, but recognize that this is different than actually betting every game with the real spread and being 60% for the year.

[hotkarl]

NO GOMER!!!

this guy used to be a vp and he said you can't win 60% of the time.

[hotkarl]

17 weeks times 3 games = 51 games

One place you say you are 33-21-1 and 61%, but then you say

Right now I'm at a p=.667

??

[hotkarl]

At 26-13-1(hard to find at 6:52 am MST on a saturday) you need to go 4-7 to be at 60% (30-20-1) to be 60% over 51 games.

[DW Simpson]

http://www.casinocitytimes.com/news/...ntentID=140664

"I had been flying into Nevada for every football weekend, and I was making the same amount of money gambling as I was in corporate America -- although with violent fluctuations in my bankroll," said Fezzik, 40.

Even way back when, couldn't this guy just have placed his bets over the phone to a Vegas book, instead of having to fly in to gamble? I don't know how this works, so I'm genuinely asking. Did you (and do you) have to physically be there to place a sports bet?